What is Ecolab Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ecolab Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $105.16 per share. The share price was $279.49 on September 25, 2026, 166% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $55.17 | -80% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $105.16 | -62% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $204.84 | -27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $142.09 | $153.37 | $167.15 | $184.37 | $206.52 |
| 8.0% | $114.53 | $121.85 | $130.49 | $140.86 | $153.53 |
| 9.0% | $94.40 | $99.40 | $105.16 | $111.89 | $119.85 |
| 10.0% | $79.06 | $82.61 | $86.64 | $91.24 | $96.56 |
| 11.0% | $66.99 | $69.60 | $72.51 | $75.79 | $79.50 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ecolab Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions