What is Emergent BioSolutions Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20.21 per share. The share price was $6.79 on September 25, 2026, 66% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $9.92 | +46% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $20.21 | +198% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $39.37 | +480% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $27.05 | $29.06 | $31.52 | $34.59 | $38.55 |
| 8.0% | $22.00 | $23.31 | $24.85 | $26.70 | $28.96 |
| 9.0% | $18.28 | $19.18 | $20.21 | $21.41 | $22.83 |
| 10.0% | $15.43 | $16.06 | $16.78 | $17.60 | $18.55 |
| 11.0% | $13.16 | $13.63 | $14.15 | $14.73 | $15.40 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-14.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions