What is Brinker International, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Brinker International, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $322.80 per share. The share price was $195.15 on November 10, 2026, 40% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $196.34 | +1% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $322.80 | +65% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $574.85 | +195% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $419.02 | $448.77 | $485.13 | $530.57 | $589.00 |
| 8.0% | $346.94 | $366.23 | $389.02 | $416.38 | $449.82 |
| 9.0% | $294.40 | $307.59 | $322.80 | $340.56 | $361.54 |
| 10.0% | $254.48 | $263.86 | $274.49 | $286.64 | $300.66 |
| 11.0% | $223.19 | $230.07 | $237.75 | $246.40 | $256.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Brinker International, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions