What is Dexcom Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dexcom Inc's reported free cash flow gives $90.49 per share. The share price was $86.62 on September 25, 2026, 4% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $56.05 | -35% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $90.49 | +4% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $154.62 | +79% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $116.57 | $124.70 | $134.64 | $147.06 | $163.03 |
| 8.0% | $96.98 | $102.25 | $108.48 | $115.96 | $125.10 |
| 9.0% | $82.73 | $86.33 | $90.49 | $95.35 | $101.08 |
| 10.0% | $71.92 | $74.49 | $77.39 | $80.71 | $84.54 |
| 11.0% | $63.47 | $65.35 | $67.45 | $69.81 | $72.49 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dexcom Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions