What is Dexcom Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dexcom Inc's reported free cash flow gives $90.14 per share. The share price was $79.92 on November 10, 2026, 11% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $55.70 | -30% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $90.14 | +13% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $154.27 | +93% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $116.21 | $124.34 | $134.28 | $146.70 | $162.67 |
| 8.0% | $96.63 | $101.90 | $108.13 | $115.61 | $124.75 |
| 9.0% | $82.37 | $85.98 | $90.14 | $94.99 | $100.73 |
| 10.0% | $71.57 | $74.13 | $77.04 | $80.36 | $84.19 |
| 11.0% | $63.11 | $64.99 | $67.09 | $69.46 | $72.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dexcom Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions