What is Dawson Geophysical Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dawson Geophysical Co's reported free cash flow gives $2.32 per share. The share price was $2.89 on September 25, 2026, 24% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.5% | 10.0% | $1.33 | -54% |
| Base | -2.5% | 9.0% | $2.32 | -20% |
| Bull | 2.5% | 8.0% | $4.27 | +48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $3.00 | $3.20 | $3.45 | $3.75 | $4.15 |
| 8.0% | $2.50 | $2.63 | $2.79 | $2.97 | $3.20 |
| 9.0% | $2.13 | $2.22 | $2.32 | $2.44 | $2.59 |
| 10.0% | $1.85 | $1.91 | $1.99 | $2.07 | $2.16 |
| 11.0% | $1.63 | $1.67 | $1.73 | $1.78 | $1.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dawson Geophysical Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions