What is Devon Energy Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Devon Energy Corp's reported free cash flow gives $146.55 per share. The share price was $43.41 on November 10, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $82.67 | +90% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $146.55 | +238% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $265.50 | +512% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $194.91 | $209.99 | $228.43 | $251.47 | $281.09 |
| 8.0% | $158.58 | $168.36 | $179.92 | $193.79 | $210.74 |
| 9.0% | $132.15 | $138.83 | $146.55 | $155.55 | $166.19 |
| 10.0% | $112.10 | $116.86 | $122.25 | $128.41 | $135.51 |
| 11.0% | $96.42 | $99.90 | $103.80 | $108.18 | $113.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Devon Energy Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions