What is Devon Energy Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Devon Energy Corp's reported free cash flow gives $146.31 per share. The share price was $47.05 on September 25, 2026, 68% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $82.42 | +75% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $146.31 | +211% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $265.25 | +464% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $194.67 | $209.75 | $228.18 | $251.22 | $280.85 |
| 8.0% | $158.34 | $168.12 | $179.68 | $193.55 | $210.50 |
| 9.0% | $131.90 | $138.59 | $146.31 | $155.31 | $165.94 |
| 10.0% | $111.86 | $116.61 | $122.00 | $128.16 | $135.27 |
| 11.0% | $96.18 | $99.66 | $103.56 | $107.94 | $112.91 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Devon Energy Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions