What is Davita Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Davita Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $153.58 per share. The share price was $179.28 on November 10, 2026, 17% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $46.32 | -74% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $153.58 | -14% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $367.38 | +105% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $231.27 | $254.79 | $283.54 | $319.47 | $365.66 |
| 8.0% | $173.45 | $188.70 | $206.72 | $228.35 | $254.79 |
| 9.0% | $131.12 | $141.55 | $153.58 | $167.61 | $184.20 |
| 10.0% | $98.81 | $106.23 | $114.63 | $124.23 | $135.32 |
| 11.0% | $73.35 | $78.79 | $84.87 | $91.70 | $99.45 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Davita Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions