What is Davita Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Davita Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $155.71 per share. The share price was $178.47 on September 25, 2026, 15% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $48.44 | -73% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $155.71 | -13% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $369.51 | +107% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $233.40 | $256.92 | $285.66 | $321.59 | $367.79 |
| 8.0% | $175.58 | $190.83 | $208.85 | $230.48 | $256.92 |
| 9.0% | $133.25 | $143.67 | $155.71 | $169.74 | $186.33 |
| 10.0% | $100.94 | $108.35 | $116.76 | $126.36 | $137.44 |
| 11.0% | $75.48 | $80.92 | $86.99 | $93.83 | $101.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Davita Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions