What is Darden Restaurants Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Darden Restaurants Inc's reported free cash flow gives $271.05 per share. The share price was $199.75 on September 25, 2026, 26% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $160.32 | -20% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $271.05 | +36% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $477.38 | +139% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $354.02 | $379.78 | $411.27 | $450.63 | $501.23 |
| 8.0% | $291.77 | $308.48 | $328.22 | $351.92 | $380.88 |
| 9.0% | $246.44 | $257.87 | $271.05 | $286.42 | $304.60 |
| 10.0% | $212.04 | $220.16 | $229.37 | $239.89 | $252.03 |
| 11.0% | $185.09 | $191.05 | $197.70 | $205.19 | $213.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Darden Restaurants Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions