What is DiamondRock Hospitality Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on DiamondRock Hospitality Co's reported free cash flow gives $20.95 per share. The share price was $12.49 on September 25, 2026, 40% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $10.86 | -13% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $20.95 | +68% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $39.73 | +218% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $28.58 | $30.97 | $33.88 | $37.52 | $42.20 |
| 8.0% | $22.85 | $24.39 | $26.22 | $28.41 | $31.08 |
| 9.0% | $18.67 | $19.73 | $20.95 | $22.37 | $24.05 |
| 10.0% | $15.50 | $16.26 | $17.11 | $18.08 | $19.20 |
| 11.0% | $13.03 | $13.58 | $14.19 | $14.89 | $15.67 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at DiamondRock Hospitality Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (30.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions