What is DiamondRock Hospitality Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on DiamondRock Hospitality Co's reported free cash flow gives $21.11 per share. The share price was $14.44 on November 10, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $11.02 | -24% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $21.11 | +46% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $39.90 | +176% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $28.75 | $31.13 | $34.04 | $37.68 | $42.36 |
| 8.0% | $23.01 | $24.55 | $26.38 | $28.57 | $31.25 |
| 9.0% | $18.83 | $19.89 | $21.11 | $22.53 | $24.21 |
| 10.0% | $15.67 | $16.42 | $17.27 | $18.24 | $19.36 |
| 11.0% | $13.19 | $13.74 | $14.36 | $15.05 | $15.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at DiamondRock Hospitality Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (30.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions