What is Dominos Pizza Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dominos Pizza Inc's reported free cash flow gives $190.31 per share. The share price was $292.14 on September 25, 2026, 54% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $68.51 | -77% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $190.31 | -35% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $433.10 | +48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $278.54 | $305.25 | $337.89 | $378.69 | $431.15 |
| 8.0% | $212.88 | $230.20 | $250.66 | $275.23 | $305.25 |
| 9.0% | $164.81 | $176.65 | $190.31 | $206.25 | $225.09 |
| 10.0% | $128.12 | $136.54 | $146.08 | $156.99 | $169.58 |
| 11.0% | $99.21 | $105.39 | $112.29 | $120.05 | $128.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dominos Pizza Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions