What is DNOW Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on DNOW Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $27.36 per share. The share price was $15.93 on September 25, 2026, 42% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $15.81 | -1% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $27.36 | +72% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $50.38 | +216% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $36.15 | $38.87 | $42.19 | $46.34 | $51.68 |
| 8.0% | $29.56 | $31.33 | $33.41 | $35.91 | $38.96 |
| 9.0% | $24.76 | $25.97 | $27.36 | $28.98 | $30.90 |
| 10.0% | $21.12 | $21.98 | $22.95 | $24.06 | $25.34 |
| 11.0% | $18.26 | $18.89 | $19.59 | $20.38 | $21.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at DNOW Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions