What is Dollar Tree, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dollar Tree, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $43.03 per share. The share price was $114.07 on September 25, 2026, 165% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $23.99 | -79% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $43.03 | -62% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $78.54 | -31% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $55.71 | $59.43 | $63.99 | $69.69 | $77.01 |
| 8.0% | $46.36 | $48.78 | $51.63 | $55.06 | $59.25 |
| 9.0% | $39.47 | $41.13 | $43.03 | $45.26 | $47.89 |
| 10.0% | $34.19 | $35.36 | $36.69 | $38.22 | $39.97 |
| 11.0% | $29.99 | $30.85 | $31.82 | $32.90 | $34.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dollar Tree, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-5.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions