What is Amcon Distributing Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amcon Distributing Co's reported free cash flow gives $454.58 per share. The share price was $67.56 on September 24, 2026, 85% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $274.20 | +306% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $454.58 | +573% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $790.72 | +1,070% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $589.75 | $631.72 | $683.02 | $747.14 | $829.58 |
| 8.0% | $488.35 | $515.56 | $547.73 | $586.33 | $633.50 |
| 9.0% | $414.50 | $433.11 | $454.58 | $479.63 | $509.24 |
| 10.0% | $358.46 | $371.69 | $386.69 | $403.83 | $423.61 |
| 11.0% | $314.56 | $324.26 | $335.10 | $347.30 | $361.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amcon Distributing Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions