What is HF Sinclair Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on HF Sinclair Corp's reported free cash flow gives $150.71 per share. The share price was $106.82 on September 25, 2026, 29% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $90.50 | -15% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $150.71 | +41% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $262.83 | +146% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $196.30 | $210.51 | $227.88 | $249.60 | $277.52 |
| 8.0% | $162.05 | $171.27 | $182.16 | $195.24 | $211.21 |
| 9.0% | $137.13 | $143.44 | $150.71 | $159.19 | $169.22 |
| 10.0% | $118.24 | $122.72 | $127.80 | $133.61 | $140.31 |
| 11.0% | $103.46 | $106.74 | $110.42 | $114.55 | $119.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at HF Sinclair Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions