What is HF Sinclair Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on HF Sinclair Corp's reported free cash flow gives $156.44 per share. The share price was $98.76 on November 10, 2026, 37% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $96.23 | -3% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $156.44 | +58% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $268.56 | +172% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $202.03 | $216.24 | $233.62 | $255.33 | $283.25 |
| 8.0% | $167.78 | $177.00 | $187.90 | $200.97 | $216.95 |
| 9.0% | $142.87 | $149.17 | $156.44 | $164.93 | $174.95 |
| 10.0% | $123.97 | $128.46 | $133.54 | $139.34 | $146.04 |
| 11.0% | $109.19 | $112.48 | $116.15 | $120.28 | $124.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at HF Sinclair Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions