What is Horton D R Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Horton D R Inc's reported free cash flow gives $284.37 per share. The share price was $141.51 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $176.30 | +25% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $284.37 | +101% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $485.91 | +243% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $364.50 | $389.26 | $419.53 | $457.36 | $506.01 |
| 8.0% | $304.47 | $320.53 | $339.51 | $362.29 | $390.13 |
| 9.0% | $260.72 | $271.70 | $284.37 | $299.16 | $316.62 |
| 10.0% | $227.49 | $235.30 | $244.14 | $254.26 | $265.93 |
| 11.0% | $201.43 | $207.15 | $213.55 | $220.75 | $228.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Horton D R Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions