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DCF valuation

What is Horton D R Inc worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Horton D R Inc's reported free cash flow gives $284.37 per share. The share price was $141.51 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$3.28B
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$2.06B
Cash
$2.08B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$0
not reported, counted as 0
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
309,900,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
11.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear6.0%4.0%2.0%10.0%$176.30+25%
Base11.0%7.0%2.5%9.0%$284.37+101%
Bull16.0%9.5%3.0%8.0%$485.91+243%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$364.50$389.26$419.53$457.36$506.01
8.0%$304.47$320.53$339.51$362.29$390.13
9.0%$260.72$271.70$284.37$299.16$316.62
10.0%$227.49$235.30$244.14$254.26$265.93
11.0%$201.43$207.15$213.55$220.75$228.90

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Horton D R Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Horton D R Inc company page