What is Dollar General Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dollar General Corp's reported free cash flow gives $186.25 per share. The share price was $124.84 on September 25, 2026, 33% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $109.82 | -12% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $186.25 | +49% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $328.95 | +163% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $240.94 | $257.58 | $277.93 | $303.35 | $336.05 |
| 8.0% | $200.17 | $210.96 | $223.72 | $239.03 | $257.73 |
| 9.0% | $170.36 | $177.74 | $186.25 | $196.19 | $207.93 |
| 10.0% | $147.63 | $152.88 | $158.83 | $165.62 | $173.47 |
| 11.0% | $129.75 | $133.59 | $137.89 | $142.73 | $148.21 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dollar General Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions