What is Deckers Outdoor Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Deckers Outdoor Corp's reported free cash flow gives $256.95 per share. The share price was $89.57 on November 10, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $159.38 | +78% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $256.95 | +187% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $438.63 | +390% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $330.82 | $353.86 | $382.01 | $417.20 | $462.45 |
| 8.0% | $275.33 | $290.27 | $307.92 | $329.11 | $355.00 |
| 9.0% | $234.95 | $245.17 | $256.95 | $270.70 | $286.95 |
| 10.0% | $204.34 | $211.60 | $219.83 | $229.24 | $240.09 |
| 11.0% | $180.38 | $185.71 | $191.66 | $198.35 | $205.94 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Deckers Outdoor Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions