What is Deckers Outdoor Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Deckers Outdoor Corp's reported free cash flow gives $259.65 per share. The share price was $78.67 on September 25, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $162.07 | +106% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $259.65 | +230% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $441.33 | +461% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $333.52 | $356.55 | $384.71 | $419.90 | $465.14 |
| 8.0% | $278.02 | $292.96 | $310.62 | $331.80 | $357.69 |
| 9.0% | $237.65 | $247.86 | $259.65 | $273.39 | $289.64 |
| 10.0% | $207.03 | $214.30 | $222.53 | $231.93 | $242.79 |
| 11.0% | $183.08 | $188.40 | $194.35 | $201.05 | $208.63 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Deckers Outdoor Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions