What is Diversified Energy Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Diversified Energy Co's reported free cash flow gives $86.42 per share. The share price was $13.79 on September 25, 2026, 84% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $37.68 | +173% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $86.42 | +527% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $177.18 | +1,185% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $123.32 | $134.83 | $148.90 | $166.48 | $189.08 |
| 8.0% | $95.60 | $103.06 | $111.88 | $122.47 | $135.40 |
| 9.0% | $75.43 | $80.53 | $86.42 | $93.29 | $101.40 |
| 10.0% | $60.14 | $63.76 | $67.88 | $72.58 | $78.00 |
| 11.0% | $48.17 | $50.83 | $53.80 | $57.15 | $60.94 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Diversified Energy Co's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (16.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions