What is Diversified Energy Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Diversified Energy Co's reported free cash flow gives $84.05 per share. The share price was $13.40 on November 10, 2026, 84% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $35.30 | +163% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $84.05 | +527% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $174.81 | +1,205% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $120.95 | $132.46 | $146.52 | $164.10 | $186.70 |
| 8.0% | $93.23 | $100.69 | $109.51 | $120.09 | $133.03 |
| 9.0% | $73.06 | $78.16 | $84.05 | $90.91 | $99.03 |
| 10.0% | $57.76 | $61.39 | $65.50 | $70.20 | $75.62 |
| 11.0% | $45.79 | $48.45 | $51.43 | $54.77 | $58.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Diversified Energy Co's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (16.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions