What is Dillard'S, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dillard'S, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $924,719.20 per share. The share price was $664.07 on September 25, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $586,390.12 | +88,202% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $924,719.20 | +139,150% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $1,556,099.63 | +234,228% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,171,281.91 | $1,246,936.55 | $1,339,403.32 | $1,454,986.79 | $1,603,594.10 |
| 8.0% | $986,995.41 | $1,036,057.25 | $1,094,039.42 | $1,163,618.03 | $1,248,658.55 |
| 9.0% | $852,468.99 | $886,013.73 | $924,719.20 | $969,875.58 | $1,023,242.21 |
| 10.0% | $750,098.57 | $773,953.56 | $800,989.21 | $831,887.09 | $867,538.50 |
| 11.0% | $669,695.63 | $687,184.00 | $706,729.83 | $728,718.88 | $753,639.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dillard'S, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions