What is Dropbox, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Dropbox, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $68.29 per share. The share price was $32.40 on November 10, 2026, 53% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $44.28 | +37% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $68.29 | +111% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $116.16 | +259% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $85.91 | $91.28 | $97.84 | $106.03 | $116.57 |
| 8.0% | $72.77 | $76.25 | $80.37 | $85.30 | $91.33 |
| 9.0% | $63.17 | $65.55 | $68.29 | $71.49 | $75.28 |
| 10.0% | $55.84 | $57.53 | $59.45 | $61.64 | $64.17 |
| 11.0% | $50.08 | $51.32 | $52.71 | $54.27 | $56.03 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Dropbox, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions