What is Delta Air Lines, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $181.54 per share. The share price was $84.94 on September 25, 2026, 53% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $105.36 | +24% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $181.54 | +114% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $323.40 | +281% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $239.22 | $257.21 | $279.19 | $306.66 | $341.99 |
| 8.0% | $195.89 | $207.56 | $221.34 | $237.88 | $258.10 |
| 9.0% | $164.37 | $172.34 | $181.54 | $192.28 | $204.97 |
| 10.0% | $140.46 | $146.14 | $152.56 | $159.91 | $168.38 |
| 11.0% | $121.76 | $125.92 | $130.56 | $135.79 | $141.72 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (30.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions