What is Delta Air Lines, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $181.43 per share. The share price was $76.65 on October 14, 2026, 58% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $105.24 | +37% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $181.43 | +137% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $323.28 | +322% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $239.10 | $257.09 | $279.07 | $306.55 | $341.87 |
| 8.0% | $195.77 | $207.44 | $221.22 | $237.76 | $257.98 |
| 9.0% | $164.25 | $172.22 | $181.43 | $192.16 | $204.85 |
| 10.0% | $140.35 | $146.02 | $152.44 | $159.79 | $168.26 |
| 11.0% | $121.64 | $125.80 | $130.45 | $135.67 | $141.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (30.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions