What is Carvana Co. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Carvana Co.'s reported free cash flow gives $119.62 per share. The share price was $65.06 on September 25, 2026, 46% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $68.23 | +5% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $119.62 | +84% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $215.31 | +231% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $158.53 | $170.66 | $185.49 | $204.03 | $227.86 |
| 8.0% | $129.30 | $137.17 | $146.47 | $157.63 | $171.26 |
| 9.0% | $108.04 | $113.42 | $119.62 | $126.87 | $135.42 |
| 10.0% | $91.91 | $95.74 | $100.07 | $105.03 | $110.75 |
| 11.0% | $79.30 | $82.10 | $85.23 | $88.76 | $92.76 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Carvana Co.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (29.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions