What is Carvana Co. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Carvana Co.'s reported free cash flow gives $121.48 per share. The share price was $73.02 on November 10, 2026, 40% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $70.09 | -4% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $121.48 | +66% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $217.17 | +197% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $160.39 | $172.52 | $187.35 | $205.88 | $229.71 |
| 8.0% | $131.16 | $139.03 | $148.32 | $159.48 | $173.12 |
| 9.0% | $109.89 | $115.27 | $121.48 | $128.72 | $137.28 |
| 10.0% | $93.77 | $97.59 | $101.93 | $106.88 | $112.60 |
| 11.0% | $81.15 | $83.96 | $87.09 | $90.62 | $94.61 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Carvana Co.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (29.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions