What is Commvault Systems Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Commvault Systems Inc's reported free cash flow gives $154.15 per share. The share price was $166.21 on November 9, 2026, 8% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $103.34 | -38% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $154.15 | -7% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $255.42 | +54% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $192.58 | $204.44 | $218.93 | $237.04 | $260.33 |
| 8.0% | $163.81 | $171.50 | $180.58 | $191.49 | $204.81 |
| 9.0% | $142.83 | $148.08 | $154.15 | $161.22 | $169.59 |
| 10.0% | $126.88 | $130.62 | $134.85 | $139.69 | $145.28 |
| 11.0% | $114.37 | $117.11 | $120.17 | $123.62 | $127.52 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Commvault Systems Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions