What is Cavco Industries, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cavco Industries, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $995.60 per share. The share price was $557.28 on September 25, 2026, 44% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $616.94 | +11% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $995.60 | +79% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,700.69 | +205% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,282.30 | $1,371.69 | $1,480.95 | $1,617.52 | $1,793.11 |
| 8.0% | $1,066.93 | $1,124.90 | $1,193.41 | $1,275.63 | $1,376.11 |
| 9.0% | $910.23 | $949.87 | $995.60 | $1,048.96 | $1,112.02 |
| 10.0% | $791.42 | $819.60 | $851.55 | $888.06 | $930.18 |
| 11.0% | $698.45 | $719.11 | $742.21 | $768.19 | $797.63 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cavco Industries, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions