What is Csx Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Csx Corp's reported free cash flow gives $8.32 per share. The share price was $46.78 on September 25, 2026, 462% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $1.47 | -97% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $8.32 | -82% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $21.12 | -55% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $13.26 | $14.77 | $16.61 | $18.91 | $21.87 |
| 8.0% | $9.58 | $10.55 | $11.71 | $13.09 | $14.79 |
| 9.0% | $6.89 | $7.55 | $8.32 | $9.22 | $10.29 |
| 10.0% | $4.84 | $5.31 | $5.85 | $6.46 | $7.17 |
| 11.0% | $3.22 | $3.57 | $3.96 | $4.40 | $4.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Csx Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions