What is Criteo S.A. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Criteo S.A.'s reported free cash flow gives $52.34 per share. The share price was $17.14 on November 10, 2026, 67% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.5% | 10.0% | $35.14 | +105% |
| Base | -1.5% | 9.0% | $52.34 | +205% |
| Bull | 3.5% | 8.0% | $86.57 | +405% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $64.36 | $67.94 | $72.31 | $77.77 | $84.80 |
| 8.0% | $55.46 | $57.78 | $60.52 | $63.81 | $67.84 |
| 9.0% | $48.93 | $50.51 | $52.34 | $54.48 | $57.00 |
| 10.0% | $43.92 | $45.05 | $46.33 | $47.79 | $49.47 |
| 11.0% | $39.96 | $40.79 | $41.71 | $42.75 | $43.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Criteo S.A.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-1.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions