What is Carpenter Technology Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Carpenter Technology Corp's reported free cash flow gives $231.60 per share. The share price was $396.84 on September 25, 2026, 71% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $138.41 | -65% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $231.60 | -42% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $405.14 | +2% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $302.16 | $324.16 | $351.05 | $384.67 | $427.88 |
| 8.0% | $249.16 | $263.42 | $280.29 | $300.52 | $325.25 |
| 9.0% | $210.59 | $220.35 | $231.60 | $244.73 | $260.25 |
| 10.0% | $181.35 | $188.29 | $196.15 | $205.13 | $215.50 |
| 11.0% | $158.47 | $163.55 | $169.24 | $175.63 | $182.88 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Carpenter Technology Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions