What is Carpenter Technology Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Carpenter Technology Corp's reported free cash flow gives $226.96 per share. The share price was $296.64 on November 10, 2026, 31% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $133.76 | -55% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $226.96 | -23% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $400.49 | +35% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $297.52 | $319.52 | $346.41 | $380.02 | $423.24 |
| 8.0% | $244.51 | $258.78 | $275.64 | $295.88 | $320.61 |
| 9.0% | $205.95 | $215.70 | $226.96 | $240.09 | $255.61 |
| 10.0% | $176.70 | $183.64 | $191.50 | $200.49 | $210.86 |
| 11.0% | $153.82 | $158.91 | $164.59 | $170.99 | $178.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Carpenter Technology Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions