What is Circle Internet Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $121.18 per share. The share price was $89.00 on September 25, 2026, 27% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $77.91 | -12% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $121.18 | +36% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $201.75 | +127% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $153.94 | $164.16 | $176.64 | $192.25 | $212.32 |
| 8.0% | $129.33 | $135.95 | $143.78 | $153.18 | $164.66 |
| 9.0% | $111.42 | $115.95 | $121.18 | $127.28 | $134.48 |
| 10.0% | $97.84 | $101.07 | $104.72 | $108.89 | $113.70 |
| 11.0% | $87.22 | $89.58 | $92.22 | $95.19 | $98.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (37.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions