What is California Resources Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on California Resources Corp's reported free cash flow gives $102.87 per share. The share price was $47.12 on November 10, 2026, 54% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $59.15 | +26% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $102.87 | +118% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $190.03 | +303% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $134.95 | $144.72 | $156.67 | $171.59 | $190.78 |
| 8.0% | $111.03 | $117.36 | $124.85 | $133.84 | $144.82 |
| 9.0% | $93.53 | $97.87 | $102.87 | $108.70 | $115.59 |
| 10.0% | $80.20 | $83.28 | $86.77 | $90.76 | $95.37 |
| 11.0% | $69.71 | $71.97 | $74.49 | $77.33 | $80.55 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at California Resources Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 6 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions