What is Costco Wholesale Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Costco Wholesale Corp's reported free cash flow gives $523.84 per share. The share price was $954.63 on October 13, 2026, 82% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $333.20 | -65% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $523.84 | -45% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $879.53 | -8% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $663.58 | $706.57 | $759.11 | $824.79 | $909.23 |
| 8.0% | $559.05 | $586.93 | $619.88 | $659.41 | $707.73 |
| 9.0% | $482.79 | $501.85 | $523.84 | $549.50 | $579.82 |
| 10.0% | $424.78 | $438.34 | $453.70 | $471.26 | $491.51 |
| 11.0% | $379.25 | $389.19 | $400.30 | $412.79 | $426.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Costco Wholesale Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions