What is Costco Wholesale Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Costco Wholesale Corp's reported free cash flow gives $474.58 per share. The share price was $922.77 on September 25, 2026, 94% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $306.03 | -67% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $474.58 | -49% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $810.55 | -12% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $602.09 | $641.42 | $689.49 | $749.58 | $826.84 |
| 8.0% | $506.63 | $532.14 | $562.28 | $598.45 | $642.66 |
| 9.0% | $437.02 | $454.46 | $474.58 | $498.06 | $525.80 |
| 10.0% | $384.11 | $396.51 | $410.57 | $426.63 | $445.16 |
| 11.0% | $342.60 | $351.70 | $361.86 | $373.29 | $386.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Costco Wholesale Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions