What is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $22.74 per share. The share price was $35.01 on September 25, 2026, 54% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $9.70 | -72% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $22.74 | -35% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $47.09 | +34% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $32.25 | $35.17 | $38.73 | $43.19 | $48.92 |
| 8.0% | $25.14 | $27.04 | $29.27 | $31.95 | $35.23 |
| 9.0% | $19.96 | $21.25 | $22.74 | $24.48 | $26.54 |
| 10.0% | $16.01 | $16.93 | $17.97 | $19.16 | $20.54 |
| 11.0% | $12.91 | $13.58 | $14.34 | $15.19 | $16.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (7.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions