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DCF valuation

What is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $22.74 per share. The share price was $35.01 on September 25, 2026, 54% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$197.1M
Average free cash flow, last 4 years
$201.3M
Cash
$158M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$1.57B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
128,296,000
Revenue growth per year, last 3 years
7.9%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear3.0%2.5%2.0%10.0%$9.70-72%
Base8.0%5.5%2.5%9.0%$22.74-35%
Bull13.0%8.0%3.0%8.0%$47.09+34%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$32.25$35.17$38.73$43.19$48.92
8.0%$25.14$27.04$29.27$31.95$35.23
9.0%$19.96$21.25$22.74$24.48$26.54
10.0%$16.01$16.93$17.97$19.16$20.54
11.0%$12.91$13.58$14.34$15.19$16.15

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (7.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. company page