What is Columbia Sportswear Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Columbia Sportswear Co's reported free cash flow gives $88.76 per share. The share price was $57.60 on September 25, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $59.12 | +3% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $88.76 | +54% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $147.84 | +157% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $110.65 | $117.33 | $125.50 | $135.71 | $148.83 |
| 8.0% | $94.31 | $98.64 | $103.77 | $109.91 | $117.42 |
| 9.0% | $82.37 | $85.34 | $88.76 | $92.74 | $97.46 |
| 10.0% | $73.28 | $75.39 | $77.78 | $80.51 | $83.65 |
| 11.0% | $66.13 | $67.68 | $69.40 | $71.34 | $73.55 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Columbia Sportswear Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions