What is Core Natural Resources, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $13.08 per share. The share price was $82.27 on November 10, 2026, 529% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $7.74 | -91% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $13.08 | -84% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $23.02 | -72% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $17.12 | $18.38 | $19.92 | $21.85 | $24.33 |
| 8.0% | $14.08 | $14.90 | $15.87 | $17.03 | $18.45 |
| 9.0% | $11.87 | $12.43 | $13.08 | $13.83 | $14.72 |
| 10.0% | $10.20 | $10.60 | $11.05 | $11.56 | $12.16 |
| 11.0% | $8.89 | $9.18 | $9.50 | $9.87 | $10.29 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (32.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions