What is Centene Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Centene Corp's reported free cash flow gives $249.79 per share. The share price was $70.19 on November 10, 2026, 72% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $158.90 | +126% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $249.79 | +256% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $430.85 | +514% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $319.06 | $340.48 | $366.66 | $399.38 | $441.46 |
| 8.0% | $267.16 | $281.05 | $297.47 | $317.17 | $341.24 |
| 9.0% | $229.33 | $238.83 | $249.79 | $262.57 | $277.68 |
| 10.0% | $200.60 | $207.35 | $215.01 | $223.76 | $233.85 |
| 11.0% | $178.07 | $183.02 | $188.56 | $194.78 | $201.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Centene Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions