What is Centene Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Centene Corp's reported free cash flow gives $255.65 per share. The share price was $61.82 on September 25, 2026, 76% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $164.76 | +167% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $255.65 | +314% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $436.71 | +606% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $324.91 | $346.33 | $372.52 | $405.24 | $447.32 |
| 8.0% | $273.01 | $286.91 | $303.32 | $323.02 | $347.10 |
| 9.0% | $235.19 | $244.69 | $255.65 | $268.43 | $283.54 |
| 10.0% | $206.46 | $213.21 | $220.86 | $229.61 | $239.71 |
| 11.0% | $183.93 | $188.88 | $194.41 | $200.64 | $207.70 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Centene Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions