What is Commerce.com, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Commerce.com, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $6.16 per share. The share price was $3.69 on November 10, 2026, 40% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $3.43 | -7% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $6.16 | +67% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $11.24 | +204% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $8.22 | $8.87 | $9.65 | $10.64 | $11.90 |
| 8.0% | $6.67 | $7.09 | $7.58 | $8.17 | $8.90 |
| 9.0% | $5.54 | $5.83 | $6.16 | $6.54 | $7.00 |
| 10.0% | $4.69 | $4.89 | $5.12 | $5.38 | $5.69 |
| 11.0% | $4.02 | $4.17 | $4.33 | $4.52 | $4.73 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Commerce.com, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions