What is Cummins Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cummins Inc's reported free cash flow gives $424.08 per share. The share price was $525.06 on September 25, 2026, 24% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $248.60 | -53% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $424.08 | -19% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $751.28 | +43% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $554.16 | $594.37 | $643.51 | $704.94 | $783.92 |
| 8.0% | $456.71 | $482.79 | $513.60 | $550.58 | $595.78 |
| 9.0% | $385.68 | $403.51 | $424.08 | $448.08 | $476.44 |
| 10.0% | $331.71 | $344.39 | $358.76 | $375.18 | $394.13 |
| 11.0% | $289.40 | $298.70 | $309.09 | $320.77 | $334.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cummins Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions