What is Cummins Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cummins Inc's reported free cash flow gives $427.63 per share. The share price was $454.18 on November 10, 2026, 6% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $252.15 | -44% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $427.63 | -6% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $754.83 | +66% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $557.71 | $597.92 | $647.06 | $708.49 | $787.47 |
| 8.0% | $460.26 | $486.33 | $517.15 | $554.13 | $599.32 |
| 9.0% | $389.23 | $407.05 | $427.63 | $451.62 | $479.99 |
| 10.0% | $335.26 | $347.94 | $362.31 | $378.73 | $397.68 |
| 11.0% | $292.95 | $302.24 | $312.63 | $324.32 | $337.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cummins Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions