What is Cme Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cme Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $233.48 per share. The share price was $264.48 on September 25, 2026, 13% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $146.14 | -45% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $233.48 | -12% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $396.55 | +50% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $296.38 | $315.57 | $339.03 | $368.36 | $406.07 |
| 8.0% | $249.45 | $261.90 | $276.61 | $294.26 | $315.84 |
| 9.0% | $215.15 | $223.66 | $233.48 | $244.94 | $258.48 |
| 10.0% | $189.02 | $195.08 | $201.94 | $209.78 | $218.82 |
| 11.0% | $168.48 | $172.91 | $177.87 | $183.45 | $189.78 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cme Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions