What is Cme Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cme Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $233.63 per share. The share price was $309.26 on November 10, 2026, 32% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $146.29 | -53% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $233.63 | -24% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $396.70 | +28% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $296.53 | $315.72 | $339.18 | $368.51 | $406.22 |
| 8.0% | $249.60 | $262.05 | $276.76 | $294.41 | $315.99 |
| 9.0% | $215.30 | $223.81 | $233.63 | $245.09 | $258.63 |
| 10.0% | $189.17 | $195.23 | $202.09 | $209.93 | $218.97 |
| 11.0% | $168.63 | $173.07 | $178.02 | $183.60 | $189.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cme Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions