What is COMMERCIAL METALS Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on COMMERCIAL METALS Co's reported free cash flow gives $34.85 per share. The share price was $65.73 on September 25, 2026, 89% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $13.05 | -80% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $34.85 | -47% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $78.31 | +19% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $51.05 | $56.01 | $62.07 | $69.65 | $79.39 |
| 8.0% | $38.95 | $42.17 | $45.97 | $50.53 | $56.11 |
| 9.0% | $30.12 | $32.31 | $34.85 | $37.81 | $41.31 |
| 10.0% | $23.39 | $24.95 | $26.72 | $28.75 | $31.09 |
| 11.0% | $18.10 | $19.25 | $20.53 | $21.97 | $23.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at COMMERCIAL METALS Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions