What is COMMERCIAL METALS Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on COMMERCIAL METALS Co's reported free cash flow gives $67.05 per share. The share price was $64.24 on November 10, 2026, 4% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $32.85 | -49% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $67.05 | +4% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $130.89 | +104% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $91.83 | $99.41 | $108.68 | $120.26 | $135.16 |
| 8.0% | $73.33 | $78.24 | $84.05 | $91.03 | $99.55 |
| 9.0% | $59.81 | $63.17 | $67.05 | $71.58 | $76.93 |
| 10.0% | $49.52 | $51.91 | $54.62 | $57.72 | $61.29 |
| 11.0% | $41.44 | $43.19 | $45.15 | $47.35 | $49.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at COMMERCIAL METALS Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions