What is Clean Energy Fuels Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Clean Energy Fuels Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $5.18 per share. The share price was $1.60 on September 25, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $2.88 | +80% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $5.18 | +224% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $9.48 | +493% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $6.86 | $7.38 | $8.01 | $8.80 | $9.81 |
| 8.0% | $5.61 | $5.94 | $6.34 | $6.81 | $7.39 |
| 9.0% | $4.69 | $4.92 | $5.18 | $5.49 | $5.86 |
| 10.0% | $4.00 | $4.16 | $4.34 | $4.55 | $4.80 |
| 11.0% | $3.45 | $3.57 | $3.70 | $3.85 | $4.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Clean Energy Fuels Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions