What is Cincinnati Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cincinnati Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $519.91 per share. The share price was $162.54 on September 25, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $319.91 | +97% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $519.91 | +220% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $892.84 | +449% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $668.17 | $714.00 | $770.01 | $840.02 | $930.04 |
| 8.0% | $557.10 | $586.82 | $621.94 | $664.09 | $715.60 |
| 9.0% | $476.14 | $496.46 | $519.91 | $547.26 | $579.59 |
| 10.0% | $414.64 | $429.09 | $445.46 | $464.18 | $485.77 |
| 11.0% | $366.41 | $377.00 | $388.84 | $402.16 | $417.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cincinnati Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions