What is Cincinnati Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cincinnati Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $516.67 per share. The share price was $188.66 on November 10, 2026, 63% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $316.67 | +68% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $516.67 | +174% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $889.60 | +372% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $664.93 | $710.76 | $766.77 | $836.78 | $926.80 |
| 8.0% | $553.86 | $583.58 | $618.70 | $660.85 | $712.36 |
| 9.0% | $472.90 | $493.22 | $516.67 | $544.02 | $576.35 |
| 10.0% | $411.40 | $425.85 | $442.22 | $460.94 | $482.53 |
| 11.0% | $363.17 | $373.76 | $385.60 | $398.92 | $414.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cincinnati Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions