What is Chewy, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Chewy, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $36.12 per share. The share price was $18.27 on September 25, 2026, 49% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $22.42 | +23% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $36.12 | +98% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $63.41 | +247% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $46.56 | $49.79 | $53.74 | $58.67 | $65.01 |
| 8.0% | $38.74 | $40.83 | $43.31 | $46.28 | $49.90 |
| 9.0% | $33.04 | $34.47 | $36.12 | $38.05 | $40.32 |
| 10.0% | $28.71 | $29.72 | $30.88 | $32.20 | $33.72 |
| 11.0% | $25.31 | $26.06 | $26.89 | $27.83 | $28.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Chewy, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions