What is Choice Hotels International Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Choice Hotels International Inc's reported free cash flow gives $73.96 per share. The share price was $101.81 on September 25, 2026, 38% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $28.43 | -72% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $73.96 | -27% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $158.73 | +56% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $108.43 | $119.18 | $132.31 | $148.73 | $169.84 |
| 8.0% | $82.53 | $89.50 | $97.74 | $107.62 | $119.71 |
| 9.0% | $63.69 | $68.46 | $73.96 | $80.37 | $87.95 |
| 10.0% | $49.41 | $52.80 | $56.64 | $61.03 | $66.09 |
| 11.0% | $38.23 | $40.71 | $43.49 | $46.61 | $50.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Choice Hotels International Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions