What is Choice Hotels International Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Choice Hotels International Inc's reported free cash flow gives $72.95 per share. The share price was $120.23 on November 10, 2026, 65% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $27.42 | -77% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $72.95 | -39% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $157.72 | +31% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $107.42 | $118.17 | $131.30 | $147.72 | $168.84 |
| 8.0% | $81.52 | $88.49 | $96.73 | $106.62 | $118.70 |
| 9.0% | $62.68 | $67.45 | $72.95 | $79.36 | $86.94 |
| 10.0% | $48.40 | $51.79 | $55.63 | $60.02 | $65.08 |
| 11.0% | $37.22 | $39.70 | $42.48 | $45.61 | $49.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Choice Hotels International Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions