What is Cognex Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cognex Corp's reported free cash flow gives $28.39 per share. The share price was $50.80 on November 10, 2026, 79% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $19.13 | -62% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $28.39 | -44% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $45.68 | -10% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $34.97 | $36.97 | $39.41 | $42.46 | $46.39 |
| 8.0% | $30.07 | $31.36 | $32.89 | $34.73 | $36.98 |
| 9.0% | $26.48 | $27.37 | $28.39 | $29.58 | $30.99 |
| 10.0% | $23.74 | $24.37 | $25.09 | $25.90 | $26.84 |
| 11.0% | $21.59 | $22.05 | $22.57 | $23.15 | $23.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cognex Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions