What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $292.70 per share. The share price was $114.67 on September 25, 2026, 61% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $179.79 | +57% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $292.70 | +155% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $517.71 | +351% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $378.60 | $405.16 | $437.62 | $478.19 | $530.35 |
| 8.0% | $314.24 | $331.47 | $351.82 | $376.24 | $406.10 |
| 9.0% | $267.34 | $279.11 | $292.70 | $308.55 | $327.28 |
| 10.0% | $231.70 | $240.08 | $249.57 | $260.41 | $272.93 |
| 11.0% | $203.77 | $209.91 | $216.77 | $224.49 | $233.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions