What is Certara, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Certara, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $18.09 per share. The share price was $9.11 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | $10.92 | +20% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | $18.09 | +99% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | $32.37 | +255% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $23.64 | $25.36 | $27.47 | $30.11 | $33.50 |
| 8.0% | $19.48 | $20.60 | $21.92 | $23.50 | $25.44 |
| 9.0% | $16.45 | $17.21 | $18.09 | $19.12 | $20.34 |
| 10.0% | $14.15 | $14.69 | $15.31 | $16.01 | $16.83 |
| 11.0% | $12.35 | $12.75 | $13.19 | $13.70 | $14.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Certara, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (14.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions