What is Central Garden & Pet Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Central Garden & Pet Co's reported free cash flow gives $71.61 per share. The share price was $39.51 on September 25, 2026, 45% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $43.24 | +9% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $71.61 | +81% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $124.58 | +215% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $91.65 | $97.71 | $105.12 | $114.38 | $126.29 |
| 8.0% | $76.74 | $80.67 | $85.31 | $90.89 | $97.70 |
| 9.0% | $65.82 | $68.51 | $71.61 | $75.23 | $79.50 |
| 10.0% | $57.49 | $59.40 | $61.57 | $64.04 | $66.90 |
| 11.0% | $50.92 | $52.32 | $53.89 | $55.65 | $57.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Central Garden & Pet Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions