What is Century Communities, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Century Communities, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $24.67 per share. The share price was $62.66 on September 25, 2026, 154% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | -$4.14 | -107% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $24.67 | -61% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $82.12 | +31% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $45.82 | $52.26 | $60.13 | $69.97 | $82.62 |
| 8.0% | $30.05 | $34.23 | $39.16 | $45.08 | $52.32 |
| 9.0% | $18.52 | $21.38 | $24.67 | $28.51 | $33.06 |
| 10.0% | $9.73 | $11.76 | $14.06 | $16.69 | $19.73 |
| 11.0% | $2.82 | $4.31 | $5.97 | $7.84 | $9.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Century Communities, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions