What is Carnival Corp Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Carnival Corp Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $44.80 per share. The share price was $22.25 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $20.69 | -7% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $44.80 | +101% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $89.69 | +303% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $63.05 | $68.74 | $75.70 | $84.39 | $95.57 |
| 8.0% | $49.34 | $53.03 | $57.39 | $62.63 | $69.02 |
| 9.0% | $39.36 | $41.89 | $44.80 | $48.19 | $52.21 |
| 10.0% | $31.80 | $33.59 | $35.63 | $37.95 | $40.63 |
| 11.0% | $25.88 | $27.19 | $28.67 | $30.32 | $32.19 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Carnival Corp Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (36.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions