What is Carnival Corp Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Carnival Corp Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $44.79 per share. The share price was $30.74 on November 10, 2026, 31% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $20.68 | -33% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $44.79 | +46% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $89.68 | +192% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $63.04 | $68.73 | $75.69 | $84.38 | $95.56 |
| 8.0% | $49.33 | $53.02 | $57.38 | $62.62 | $69.01 |
| 9.0% | $39.35 | $41.88 | $44.79 | $48.19 | $52.20 |
| 10.0% | $31.79 | $33.58 | $35.62 | $37.94 | $40.62 |
| 11.0% | $25.87 | $27.19 | $28.66 | $30.31 | $32.19 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Carnival Corp Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (36.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions