What is Community Financial System, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Community Financial System, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $93.10 per share. The share price was $61.57 on September 25, 2026, 34% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $60.03 | -3% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $93.10 | +51% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $159.05 | +158% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $117.53 | $124.99 | $134.11 | $145.50 | $160.15 |
| 8.0% | $99.30 | $104.14 | $109.85 | $116.71 | $125.10 |
| 9.0% | $85.98 | $89.29 | $93.10 | $97.55 | $102.81 |
| 10.0% | $75.83 | $78.18 | $80.85 | $83.89 | $87.41 |
| 11.0% | $67.85 | $69.57 | $71.50 | $73.67 | $76.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Community Financial System, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions