What is Community Financial System, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Community Financial System, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $96.25 per share. The share price was $64.88 on November 10, 2026, 33% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $63.18 | -3% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $96.25 | +48% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $162.20 | +150% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $120.68 | $128.14 | $137.26 | $148.65 | $163.31 |
| 8.0% | $102.45 | $107.29 | $113.01 | $119.87 | $128.25 |
| 9.0% | $89.13 | $92.44 | $96.25 | $100.70 | $105.97 |
| 10.0% | $78.98 | $81.33 | $84.00 | $87.04 | $90.56 |
| 11.0% | $71.00 | $72.72 | $74.65 | $76.82 | $79.28 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Community Financial System, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions