What is Cava Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cava Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $10.03 per share. The share price was $51.58 on September 25, 2026, 414% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $7.17 | -86% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $10.03 | -81% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $15.37 | -70% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $12.20 | $12.88 | $13.70 | $14.74 | $16.07 |
| 8.0% | $10.57 | $11.01 | $11.53 | $12.15 | $12.91 |
| 9.0% | $9.38 | $9.68 | $10.03 | $10.43 | $10.91 |
| 10.0% | $8.49 | $8.70 | $8.94 | $9.22 | $9.54 |
| 11.0% | $7.78 | $7.94 | $8.11 | $8.31 | $8.53 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cava Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (23.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions